As France is gearing up to take over the European Union's presidency from July 1st, Barnier has been pushing an agenda in support of the continuation of direct CAP payments and in opposition to a poor WTO agreement.

The French minister, whose staff declined requests for an interview with the Farmers' Journal, came out strongly in favour of what he calls the “CAP model” after a meeting on the future of Europe's agricultural policy in Copenhagen two weeks ago. “If you scrap market regulation and stabilisation devices, as, in a way, the Commission suggests, and if you scrap all agricultural aid, there is no longer a common agricultural policy,” he said.

In response to critics who argue that the EU has been subsidising European farmers at the expense of farmers in poorer countries, he replied that the introduction of CAP-style policies in the developing world, rather than global deregulation, would help improve the situation in those countries. “West Africa, East Africa, Latin America and the southern shore of the Mediterranean all need regional common agricultural policies,” he said. He went on to offer help from the EU on the implementation of such policies in those regions.

Addressing the AGM of France's leading farmers union FNSEA last month, the minister gave a glimpse of his plans for the CAP health check during the French presidency of the EU. He stated that the debate on the post-2013 period should start without delay. “If we wait until 2010 or 2011 to debate the goals and the mission of our agricultural policy, it will be too late in the European time scale. My experience as a commissioner tells me that if the political debate does not precede the budgetary debate, then the budget and its constraints dictate policies,” he said.

He added that the CAP would need to help Europe produce more, as part of a global effort to double food production by 2050 to feed 9 billion people. Barnier advocates the continuation of direct payments and their revamping to “be in line with market realities and the objectives of sustainable agriculture.” In an opinion piece in the economic newspaper La Tribunelast month, he hinted at how this could be achieved: “It is urgent to boost support for sustainable productions by drawing money from payments intended for those sectors that benefit from higher prices,” he wrote.

He also wishes to “renovate market stabilisation devices” such as intervention, quotas or set-aside rather than scrapping them. Finally, he wants the CAP to include collective strategies, such as insurance schemes, to manage animal health or market-related crises.

Barnier's plans for continued strong EU support for the farming sector clash with the World Trade Organisation's objective to seal a fresh deal on trade as soon as possible, especially on food products.

While France advocates the regionalisation of the agricultural production and trade, free-trade advocates argue that opening borders worldwide would ease the current food crisis in the developing world and encourage further production.

As agriculture has become the main point of tension in world trade talks, some commentators predict that the WTO will be tempted to push a deal restricted to food commodities, clearing the way for subsequent negotiations on industrial products and services. Barnier's view is that any “balanced” agreement would have to include agricultural and industrial products at the same time.

According to him, the only way to deal with agriculture separately is to take it out of the scope of the WTO and create a separate World Agriculture Organisation under the control of the UN. The proposed body would deal with the development and research aspects currently covered by the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation as well as agricultural trade.

Short of that, France seems prepared to block a WTO agreement that it would deem too detrimental to agriculture. “We prefer the absence of a deal to a bad deal”, Barnier told farmers last month.

With Irish farmers threatening to vote down the French-sponsored Lisbon treaty if such a “bad deal” is signed, the French government will be all the more cautious about WTO moves. If next month's referendum returned a majority of No votes, the French presidency would be left to pick up the pieces.