The country's weekly milk output skyrocketed to more than 500 million litres in late February and early March, when it is normally around 450 million litres. At around 38 cents per litre, attractive prices and a 15% extra individual quota allocation led farmers to retain older animals longer and, in some cases, to milk three times a day from mid-November.

This led to logistical problems in some regions, with processors having to organise more frequent collections and turning more milk than planned into butter and powder.

Short-term production-boosting measures, however, seem to have ended with the quota year. “I stopped three-times-a-day milking on March 31st,” said Bruno Boffat, who keeps 45 dairy cows near Lyon and had switched to that system on November 20.

Prices are also expected to take a seasonal plunge in the coming weeks, following a well-established annual French pattern. Henri Brichart chairs the National Federation of Milk Producers (FNPL), which is in charge of negotiating a quarterly pricing agreement with processors. He expects the next round of discussions, which will take place in the coming month, to maintain the existing 10-cent-per-litre advantage over last year's prices. This would still mean a seasonal 5-cent drop for April and May prices compared to early year ones.

The scene thus seems set for a production fall-back but everyone in France is extremely cautions when trying to predict its pace.

One scenario would see milk output remain higher than previous years, then drop sharply in the summer. “There is never a strong evolution when a new quota year starts. Farmers follow the recent trend”, observes Henri Brichat.

He is not aware of a sudden increase in the number of older cows being slaughtered and expects that milk production will remain high as the cattle are put to grass. “It is easier to manage than when you have to buy feed,” he said. He added that this could lead to steady production levels in the next three months and a sharp drop in the summer, as many French farmers tend to dry off cows in the hotter months.

Slow grass growth, however, could be one of the factors leading to another scenario: a quick drop in production from this month. “March was cold and wet, and the beginning of April has not been great. Grass growth is far from exceptional,” said Gérard You, an economist with the Paris-based Institut de l'élevage. “This does not favour high production, unless you provide concentrated feed.”

Combined decreasing milk prices and high feed prices could then put the damper on milk output.

According to Gérard You, the next fortnight will show whether French producers keep output levels higher than in 2007 or if they go back to last year's strategy.

Bruno Boffat, for his part, expects a 5 to 6% margin from quota made available by other farmers at the end of the year, in addition to the EU's 2.5% increase. He also bought some extra quota. All counted, he is planning to produce 30,000 litres more this year than the 400,000 he turned out in 2007.

Grass growth is weak and fodder is expensive in his region. But whatever happens, he has more than one string to his bow: he and his brothers also have a turkey and chicken unit and, more crucially, an award-winning dairy breeding herd. “This is our passion, and our reason to produce milk – because, in itself, it is not very profitable”, he said.